Last night it was announced that Uriah Hall would be stepping in as a late replacement to face Gegard Mousasi at UFC Fight Night 75 in Japan. Given the two’s respective areas of expertise (striking) and areas of weakness (reluctance to pull the trigger), this could be the greatest fight ever or an absolute suckfest featuring the duo dancing around for 15 minutes without engaging. Regardless, let’s assume it’s going to be good, and cut right to the chase: Who will win?

The facts are thus:

  • Mousasi was a Strikeforce light-heavyweight champ, and since winning that belt until now, has lost only to King Mo, Lyoto Machida and Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza. King Mo and Jacare worked him over on the ground; Machida simply out-pointed him on the feet.
  • Mousasi is good on the ground and great on the feet, and he’s beaten theĀ likes of Dan Henderson, Ovince St. Preux, Costa Phillippou, and Illir Latifi.
  • Hall was the breakout star of TUF 17, and though he didn’t win the competition, his performances included some of the most devastating knockouts caught on camera.
  • His willingness to flit about and wait for an opening has led to some disappointing performances though, and he’s lost to the likes of Kelvin Gastelum, John Howard and Rafael Natal – each by decisions that could have gone his way if he’d have just threw more strikes.
  • Both men are extremely explosive with their strikes, and accurate to the point where you don’t want to leave the room while they’re fighting ’cause you might miss the sudden and violent end.

Who will win? Mousasi has the edge in experience, Hall has the edge in youthful vitality… really, it could just boil down to who commits first. Gah! I don’t know!