Jonathan Brookins (13-4-0) vs. Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira (15-2-0-1)

In a pivotal featherweight matchup, Ultimate Fighter 12 winner Jonathan Brookins battles former lightweight Charles Oliveira. Brookins failed in his return to 145 after winning The Ultimate Fighter 12 title against current number one contender Erik Koch. He wasn’t finished, but he didn’t look good. In Brookins next fight he took on Vagner Rocha knocking him out in about 90 seconds, and will look to continue that streak. Olvieira started off his UFC career with two spectacular submissions, but over his next three fights was finished and submitted for the first time ever. He dropped to 145 and reversed his fate, but it was against the unproven Eric Wisely.

Jonathan has usually taken the fight to the ground in most of his fights. He relies on his strong ground game to win. Luckily, in his last fight he has shown signs of an improved striking game. This is what he will need in this fight, because he cannot solely depend on his ground game. Charles is the superior BJJ practitioner. That does not mean Brookins will flounder there, but he cannot rely on it to win. He should use his standup and reach advantage to fluster Charles. That is not to say that Oliveria is bad standing up, he’s just very dangerous on the ground.

The reason Oliveira is so dangerous on the ground is that he attempts and pulls off submissions. Like his triangle in the first minute against Darren Elkins, he is fast with them, and his calf-slicer submission shows he is innovative as well. Oliveira is not immune to being submitted though, because Jim Miller was able to finish him there.

The Bottom Line: Oliveira is just too dangerous. To beat him you have to outwork him, but that is not something Brookins will be able to do. Look for Olivera to finish this fight in the second on the ground.