Gray “The Bully” Maynard (10-1-1) vs. Clay “The Carpenter” Guida (29-12-0)

The main event of the UFC on FX 4 is a pivotal lightweight matchup even though both fighters are coming off losses. Gray Maynard fought former champion Frankie Edgar twice, but unfortunately was unable to win either of the bouts. Clay Guida fought current champion Ben Henderson, and even though he was unable to win, he proved he could challenge top fighters in the division.

Gray Maynard needs to work on his cardio if he wants to win the belt. It failed him yet again when he was stopped in the second consecutive bout with Edgar. Maynard may have fixed that problem after changing up his training regimen, moving to Jose Aldo’s Nova Uniao camp, and even double-dipping with American Kickboxing Academy. He has always possessed great wrestling paired with submission defense, and while he may not have the greatest boxing skills, Maynard does have enormous power.

Clay Guida could be seen as a polar opposite. The two fighters do have wrestling in common, but beyond that, they differ quite a bit. Guida is known for his superior cardio, rapid fire striking style, and incredible chin. His problem lies with opponents who control him on the ground. High level ground practitioners, and anyone who can slow him down on the feet. If Guida can keep on his feet, avoid Maynard’s power, and tire him out, he’s won the battle.

The Bottom Line: If Maynard has not improved his cardio he simply will not win, especially since the affair is a five round fight. The problem with Guida is his style leaves him open to shots. That will cost him this fight as he gets hit flush with one of Maynard’s power shots… Prediction is he will not recover from the damage and we will have a TKO in the second, Maynard.