If you were to look at the fight odds and public opinion polls, you would think Carlos Condit had nearly zero chance of defeating Georges St-Pierre today. Even with GSP repeating that his focus is solely on his current opponent, the threat and intrigue of a fight with the longtime middleweight champion Anderson Silva still has to weigh heavy on his mind. Considering expectations of performing, and handling press obligations, Condit will carry the lighter load. Even while dealing with a long layoff from a severe ACL tear, St-Pierre is expected to win. And even with the signs of a perfect storm aligning for Condit, it’s understandably hard for the average fan to go against the welterweight kingpin in this match.

Even after a long run as champion, GSP has never once really been shown to have a weakness in his skills. He has taken out great strikers like Thiago Alves, great ground fighters like Jon Fitch, and well rounded fighter like Josh Koscheck. In fact, the only reason that GSP is probably not undefeated in his career is because he has a mental issue. The champ always carries a deep fear, despite his amazing talents. Even now, years into his career his fear still affects him. Just hours from the bout, GSP says he is afraid to touch people in case he might get sick for tomorrow’s fight. Fear can be an excellent motivator, but it also has it’s cons that can be exploited.

Just looking at the statistics, Carlos Condit has finished 26 out of his 28 wins. It’s not a specific skill such asĀ  Shane Carwin’s knockout record, or that he is some submission machine like Demian Maia. No, he is both with 13 submission finishes and 13 knockouts as well. He has submitted and knocked out all types of fighters. Another interesting fact is that he never tires and he never stops attacking. This could cause a lot of trouble for GSP.

The Bottom Line:

Two weeks ago I would have said GSP would thoroughly pick apart Condit with ease, but in the passing weeks it has become clear that “fears” have taken away St-Pierre’s focus to finish. The worrisome St-Pierre will fatigue in the fourth, leaving him open to Condit’s submission game.