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TUF Finale: Melvin Guillard vs. Jaime Varner Prediction

Melvin “The Young Assassin” Guillard (30-11-2-1) vs. Jaime “C-4″ Varner (20-7-1-2)

Melvin Guillard was considered to fight for the title at one time, but took a fight against Joe Lauzon to stay active. That has had to be the biggest mistake of his career, as he was submitted in the first round after putting together an 8-1 streak in the octagon. Now he is currenlty 1-3 in his last four fights, having being finished in each one. He now faces Varner who is another finish or be finished type of fighter as well.

In thirty professional bouts, Varner has only went to decision in five of them. After not making the transition from WEC to the UFC, Varner did think about retiring, but a shift in camps changed his mind. A short notice fight to get back into the UFC turned into a career resurgence when he knocked out Edson Barboza in a fight no one thought he could win. Then he tried to take another short notice fight against Joe Lauzon and did well but was finished in the third round.

These two will create a great fight, and it could be finished at any moment. For Varner, he has the ability to finish the fight on the feet, but the safest bet is to take it to the ground. Guillard has a deficit there having been submitted nine times in his career, while Varner has nine submission wins. Guillard will want to keep this fight standing, considering the one punch knockout power he has in his hands. If Varner does keep it standing, he will have to watch out for Guillard’s power.

The Bottom Line:

Guillard has not been the fighter that went on that 8-1 streak lately, and his confidence may be shot. Despite his loss, Varner has had his confidence regained and will prove it with a first round submission.

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