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UFC 158 Prediction: The Main Event

Georges “Rush St. Pierre (23-2-0) vs. Nick Diaz (28-6-0-1)

“You can talk the talk but can you walk the walk?” is the perfect phrase for this fight, because for over the course of nearly two years Nick Diaz has called out GSP. He tells media he thinks the longtime welterweight champion is on steroids, that he is not a real fighter, and that he will beat him down. The problem is so far in his career he has made no indication that it is even possible he will win.

Since 2005, GSP has gone 16-1 with wins over most of the top fighters at 170 in the world. In contrast, Diaz has gone 17-5-0-1 with his biggest win coming over a past-his-prime BJ Penn. Are fighters like Evangelista Santos, Paul Daley, KJ Noons and Marius Zaromskis on the level of Josh Koscheck, Jon Fitch, Jake Shields and Thiago Alves? No, not really.

Any way you slice it, Diaz is on the losing end of this match-up. He has never done well against wrestlers, and GSP is one of the best wrestlers in the world. There should be no doubt in anyone’s mind that GSP can take Diaz down, because if he can take down Division 1 wrestlers, he can take Diaz down.

This will leave it to Diaz’s ground game to submit GSP, and luckily Diaz has jiu-jitsu in spades. He seems more prone to stand and trade, but he will need to work off his back to try and submit the Canadian. That is where he will have to work, because if GSP does not want to stand with Diaz then he will not have to.

The Bottom Line:

GSP has shown great defense in his BJJ game, and even if he does get caught in a submission he will be able to defend. In the end, he will grind out a decision win over the Stockton brawler.

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