UFC 155 Fight Prediction: Junior dos Santos vs. Cain Velasquez

Junior “Cigano” dos Santos (15-1-0) vs. Cain Velasquez (10-1-0)

When you talk to fans, the general consensus is that the first fight between Cain and JDS was a fluke. It’s the same sentiment that many have for Manny Pacquiao’s recent knockout loss. The question is, is there such a thing as a lucky punch? JDS threw a punch, it connected and Velasquez went down. Is that not the game plan for all of JDS’s fights? The real problem with that fight was that supposedly Velasquez injured his knee three weeks before the bout, and it affected his ability to shoot in. If that is really the case we could have a whole different fight on are hands.

Obviously, no one can really match the wrestling ability of Velasquez in the cage as majority of the fights are stopped due to his ground and pound. He also has dynamite in his hands which he showed off with his knockout of Big Nog, and his first round TKO of Brock Lesnar. Velasquez is a complete fighter, and that is what makes him so dangerous.

This fight comes down to if Velasquez can make it past the first two rounds. Obviously, there is the chance that he can take JDS down and ground and pound him, but that will most likely not happen until later in the fight, if he can tire JDS out. Velasquez needs to clinch JDS, drive  him into the cage, and tire him out. That way, as the later rounds hit, JDS will be tired and susceptible to the takedown. For JDS, he needs to use foot movement to keep Velasquez outside his punches, sprawl away from take downs and use his hands to setup the knockout.

JDS on the other hand is still a mystery, despite being 9-0 in the octagon. His stand-up game is so good that we do not really know how good his cardio is in the later championship rounds. How good is the champ off his back? What’s his ground and pound defense like against a fully conscious opponent? As with Chuck Liddell back in the day, when you are that much of a knockout artist, while defending the takedown – you may not need to show off the rest of your game.

The Bottom Line:

Sometimes in your career there is a fighter who just has your number, despite being able to take out everyone else. Whether it is Anderson Silva to Rich Franklin, Rampage to Chuck Liddell, or Frankie Edgar to BJ Penn all of those fighters were continually defeated. That may in fact be the issue for Velasquez with JDS. Despite Cain’s ability to beat nearly every other fighter at heavyweight, he will see his title dreams cut short by a knockout in the second round at the hands of JDS.